The future of organised crime
Changes to the Australian and global environments inevitably affect organised crime. Specifically, organised crime is likely to adapt to a changing social, technological and financial environment. Although the key characteristics of organised crime groups are unlikely to change—their involvement in some criminal activities are likely to become more important for them.
Illicit drugs will likely remain the main source of criminal proceeds for organised crime. However, new sectors and activities may be more appealing or profitable to organised crime groups.
New technologies
Many serious and organised criminals are increasingly using new technologies to support their activities. Communications technology helps provide new targets and improved security for criminals, with some offences being undertaken distantly or internationally.
Access to facilitators with financial skills or knowledge
Financially skilled facilitators who help criminals retain and legitimise proceeds of crime, avoid taxation and other obligations relating to legally obtained income, will continue to be critical to successful criminal operations. Financial sector regulatory regimes will be increasingly important in the prevention of organised crime.
Access to anonymity
The ability to hide true identity will continue to be crucial for the successful operation of organised crime groups. In response, law enforcement is developing increasingly sophisticated tools for identifying and preventing the misuse, theft and falsification of identity.
Rebuilding after law enforcement disruption
Sometimes the real or perceived threat of law enforcement attention or legislation changes can affect the activities of criminal networks. However, strong organised criminal networks often display the ability to rebuild or adapt once law enforcement has intervened. This ability to rebuild contributes to the success of organised crime groups.
Changes to drug markets
Cannabis is likely to remain the largest of Australia's illicit drug markets. Cocaine also continues to have a large and entrenched market. However, there has also been a gradual increase in reported heroin availability. Meanwhile, demand within Australia for synthetic drugs—principally methylamphetamine and MDMA—may not have peaked yet. The scale of the domestic market and the level of operation of some criminal networks involved in the Australian amphetamine market is substantial.
Money laundering, fraud and the financial sector
Access to money laundering and specialist financial advice will become even more critical for organised criminal groups as financial controls tighten. Over time, a significant proportion of criminal activities targeting the mainstream economy may become less visible. It is likely that the introduction of further anti-fraud measures across the private and public sectors will reduce the occurrence of financial offences. Technology based initiatives may serve to close off, or substantially reduce the risk of existing fraud activities. While the global financial crisis may lead to increased controls and greater caution by investors, it is unlikely to affect the demand for specialist knowledge, and if anything, may lead to a greater demand by both criminal and legitimate business for professional financial services.
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